Dan Zanger, Male Model

In a recent post I discussed using the Adoption/Diffusion model in conjunction with the Wyckoff model of market stages. At the time, the indexes moved through a stage of distribution into mark down according the Wyckoff model, signifying the Innovators unloading inventory to the Laggards according to the Adoption/Diffusion model. During this period the possibility of further redistribution and mark down as First Adopters began to support Innovators came into question.

Since then however, the landscape looks much different and it is becoming clear that First Adopters did not show up in support of the move. I do not know for a fact that they won't show up, but they've neither signed the registrar nor have been seen at the party. Further, recent evidence shows that the Innovators are moving to the long side. Through the process of the Adoption/Diffusion study, the modeling of Innovators, who they are and whether or not their actions can be identified and modeled seemed like a logical follow up- but where to begin wasn't quite clear.

It wasn't until I saw a couple of tweets on StockTwits that I realized I had my model of study- Dan Zanger.

Dan Zanger Tweet August 26

What suddenly stood out was the swiftness with which he changed his mood. Until recently many of the charts he posted indicated further downside and his tweets cautioned getting chopped up in this tape and keeping one's powder dry.  Within a few hours after posting another cautious tweet he switched on a dime and opened a long position.  I thought, if there is someone who has an understanding of their risk tolerance along with knowing when leadership begins to emerge before the indexes make up the lag time, and would be considered an Innovator it would be Dan Zanger. So if he is suddenly becoming opportunistic I would consider this a change of market sentiment by an acknowledged market technician and worth paying attention to.