Top Performers Q1

With the market in pullback mode and perchance correction mode, I'll be paying attention to a basket of liquid stocks that showed the best relative strength over the first quarter of 2013 for their price reaction with the expectation that those that hold up the best will be the better vehicle selection for the next leg of the drive.

 

Where the Wild Moves Are

Top 50 stocks from the June 04 low.

Top 50

Top 50 Russell

Top 50 Russell

Top 50 Stocks by RS as Compared to the NDX

The following is a list of the top 50 stocks with 100K+ average daily volume over the past three days ranked by relative strength to the NDX from the time period of 02/03/12 through 04/02/12.  Included is Volume(Dollar), Price Per Share, % increase over this period, and proximity to 52-Week High.

Top 50 by RS to NDX

Where the Sun Don't Shine

It's late night at the diner and the pickings are slim and the dregs at the bottom of the pot are burnt. Action like today gives pause as it exhibits a “something to do just because” mentality with a select few stocks as the soup du jour. Bottom fishing yet again took the lead today as my scans show 213 stocks up 4% today on greater volume but with just 19 within 15% of their 52-Week high and half priced under $5.

Today's theme was solar, a group quite beaten down and hovering near 52-Week lows with no significant catalyst having moves of 30%+ nearly across the board. It probably didn't hurt that solar as a whole was a powder keg to begin with and ready for igniting given the float that was short coming into today: FSLR 35%, TSL 24%, JKS 24%, CISQ 14%, SOL 8%, and JASO 7%.

Today's market action can be summed up thus: “Well, what did you do that for?” --”Because I can.” When this type of herding into a select few stocks begins to occur and the fluff rises to the top, it's suggestive of a market that's reached a boiling point and may roil over. In general these will not be the type of stocks that will garner institution support and will instead have their short term momentum phase revert. This action suggest the market may be running on fumes here and a pause is on the horizon. A small pull back here should be welcomed as an opportunity for stocks to set up.

What's Swinging?

It's quite apparent there are pockets of strength in this market as evident by recent all time highs. They reads like an ironic tale of eating at McDonald's, then haven a Sam Adams and Phillip Morris smoke, then using an Apple device with Nike+ to redeem oneself the next day. There are also pockets of extreme weakness as well with a number of former leaders in severe decline. There have been few opportunities over the past few months to swing trade for any length of time as each day that passes is like being stuck in a crappy corner in minesweeper.

Currently volatility in the market has begun to wane and over all market breadth is much improved, however set ups continue to be few and far between at these times vehicle selection is critical. Since the October bottom, my preferred selection of stocks near 52-Week highs breaking out have not been working, but stocks near their lows are. Additionally low priced stocks in terminal declines have also shown to be performing well during this period.

In order to get a composite of what is currently working in the market I've used TeleChart to break down my universe into four time periods, Price Percent Change 5-Day, Price Percent Change 1-Month, Price Percent Change since 10/03/11 and Price Percent Change 26-Weeks. In conjunction I choose a heading list indicating the Symbol, Volume(Dollars)1-Day, Price Per Share, Sort Value, Price as Percent of 52 Week High, and Sub-Industry Group.

From this list I can then hone in on and separate according to my criteria which stocks are working and where strength is being shown.

5 Day Change

1 Month Change

Change Since 10/03/11

Change Over 26-Weeks

Nomentum

My trading universe is dynamically generated, but has been consistently in the range of 2600-2700 stocks which constitutes a little less than half of the current Worden universe of 5778. Using one of the more common gauges of momentum, Price Percent Change 26-Weeks results in 352 above 0. If I wanted to get picky and reduce this list further I could remove the buy-outs, but this would do nothing to change the fact that 2286 stocks in my universe are negative.