In
Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets the 30 week moving average is a key determinant of which stage the market is currently in. Based upon his methodology, a declining 30 week moving average is Stage 4, and regarding stage 4 he states on page 39, "Don't get caught up in the macho game of riding out a decline. Hanging tough in Stage 4 is a masochistic and costly game."
The weekly chart of the SP clearly shows that the market is in Stage 4. In order for the market to transition into a new up trend- Stage 2- it must first go through Stage 1, a basing area. As of yet the volatility remains exceptionally high indicating the unlikelihood of a transition in the near future.
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| Weinstein's Stage 4 |
Sometimes deducing a markets character really can be this simple.
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