SPX and Probable Direction

It's well known there are three directions a market can move: up, down, or sideways.  How it moves and how it gets from point A to point B can have varying behaviors and characteristics and patterns.  Sometimes it's choppy and volatile, and other times smooth and trending, and often in between.  Looking at the SPX today I decided to break down what is now known and what is probable.

The information that is known as of now is that the SPX is in a down trend as defined by a series of lower lows and lower highs.  Additionally it's known that a key pivot low has now held for 6 days and a lower high has now been established as well.  This is basic information that can be witnessed from a chart.  Using this information, the next step is to determine the probable market direction which I admit is somewhat subjective.

The main reason this is subjective is that it's dependent upon one's beliefs of the market and their plan of action.  My prejudice is to trade in an up trending market. This is the market action that I believe gives an edge and is much more judicious when I make mistakes and errors.  So, given that market direction is divisible by 3 and the market is clearly not in an uptrend, I can remove this variable.  It's still too early to tell whether or not there will be a sideways move, but a range bound market can be just as deadly as a down trend --especially in a down trend --so these two stack the odds 66% against.  

SPX

One thing I'm keeping in mind is that if this market breaks to the down side it could renew fast and furious selling.  Each dip has been more severe than the previous and this bounce has brought relief like the last breath before Jaws pulls Chrissie down for good.