Divorcing Time Frames

Knowing our time in the market can greatly assist us as traders in our timing of the market. One of the errors that traders compound is working off of two different time frames. This can result in unnecessary conflict as the emerging emotions of one time period may supersede the disciplined required on another. Recently I underwent this experience when a longer term holding period was pressured on a shorter term time frame and I sold the position only to watch it rebound to new highs. I allowed a shorter term time horizon bearishness to override the a plan that thus far kept me pat for 3 months.

If you are a short-term trader, recognize that selling a stock for a quick profit only to watch it go on to double in price is of no real concern to you. You operate in a particular zone of a stock’s price continuum, and someone else may operate in a totally different area of the curve. However, if you’re a longer-term investor, there will be many times when you make a decent short-term gain only to give it all back in the pursuit of a larger move.  --Mark Minervini

Over time traders begin to develop default behaviorism arising from experience and intuition. One of the things to be cautious of is that the default capital preservation of a system devised for a shorter time time frame of 5 days can override a longer time horizon system which can in turn become an exceptional costly mistake. The longer capital is tied up in a position the more crucial it is that this position be allowed an opportunity for an outsized gain on this horizon.

Time Slice Analysis

Lately I've been increasing effort in the study and analysis of what stocks do on my time frame.  My standard time horizon is between 5 to 10 days.  In placing effort into the actual behavior of what stocks are doing new insights can be gleamed about what is actually working such as: sector themes, patterns, are stocks near highs or beaten down, are they highly shorted etc...

Looking at the past ten days from a sector perspective, more defensive oriented stocks are beginning to populate the 52 Week High list.

Sectors on the Move

Looking at sizable moves over the past five days we can note that there are a cluster of Latin American Regional Banks to pay attention to, as well as some defensive plays in Silver and Utilities.

5 Day Moves

The list for 10 days is slightly larger, but two segments worth noting are Gold and Minerals and Mining are in play.

10 Day Moves

Keeping aware of what is moving on our time frame can assist in trade ideas by finding sectors that money is flowing into, the stocks that are in play, and give a clue as to general market sentiment based upon the action of aggressive or defensive stocks populating the list and not opinions. From my perspective I'll begin investigating the metal related stocks for set ups.

ANV

$PPP

RGLD

TAHO

Hiccups and Hyperventilation

With the Russell down nearly 2% today the cacophony of collapse reverberated yet again.  A familiar theme has been when the market hiccups the masses hyperventilate, and today was no different.  Is this a cause to be alarmed or is this merely the ebb, flow and the natural order of things?  How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop?

There were warning signs that the market was becoming extended from a breadth perspective and that it might be wise to in the least anticipate anticipation and be on alert.  One of the more pertinent and reliable indicators that I use in my tool box is the $MTMW which informs us of the number of stocks on the $NYSE that are above their 20 period moving average.  On a shorter term horizon this suggest that there is an extension of breadth that historically is not tenable on this time frame and we should expect some reversion in stocks.

$MTMW July 07, 2014

On a longer term time frame the primary indicator I use reached a level that in the recent past has acted as a ceiling to broader rallies and led to a lesser number of participating stocks which increased the significance of proper vehicle selection or even avoidance due to an increased risk of churning.

Primary

In addition there were signs in the overall Market Monitor suggestion that the current bullish move was losing steam.

Market Monitor

Under the current environment I consider the prudent form of speculation is increasing cautiousness and decreasing risk.  From a swing trading perspective, time in the market is not time on my side.  Being aggressive has not paid well under these scenarios so trading under my normal position size and expected value should be muted.  Cons aside, there are still a number of set ups that are piquing my interest and a number of stocks on my watch are still valid in formation even with today's dip in small caps.  Two of note are CODE and PEGA.

$CODE

$PEGA

Weekend Review June 13th, 2014

My anticipation coming into this week was that there would be a high probability of the general market indexes taking a rest due to extended breadth on a shorter term time horizon as indicated by the $MTMW. Whenever this reading is above 80 there are typically three scenarios I am mindful of: a pullback in price, a digestion through time, or rotation. What this information tells me is that the expectations on my open positions on my personal time frame should be muted and that my stops have a higher probability of being challenged.

These themes played out in the price action I noted this week from stocks on my watch list or trades that I took.

Break Out, No Follow Through, Pullback

HZNP and GOGO exhibited this action.

HZNP

GOGO

Break Out, Break Down

GMCR, QIWI, FB, and PANW exhibited this action.

GMCR

QIWI

FB

PANW

Into this up coming week I'm focusing upon stocks like QIWI, former high flyers that have corrected over 40%+ and have since seen an ~20% leg up followed by flattening out. Stocks like WIX and WDAY are exhibiting the characteristics of stocks that have been working in the current market environment for short term swings. YELP exemplified this pattern. If current history is a guide, anchored momentum from a correcting index low tend to be the first out the gate, then a few furlongs in momentum stocks and those near highs begin to close.

WIX

WDAY

YELP

Perusing my leadership scan, one theme that continues to populate the results has been biology, while another that has been increasing in numbers of late has been oil and gas related stocks. As much as I distrust Bios, there is a dot com market happening in them so while the window is open taking advantage of the speculation here would be prudent.

BIOLOGY

OIL/GAS

A quick glance at market breadth shows continued improvement over the past month even as grim headlines are being addressed and assessed. As of now, the number of set ups available indicate that market participants continue to be blasé here about all the perceived risk and negative tones that are rippling through. If there is a change in sentiment it should become evident in strong set ups breaking down instead and heavier selling hitting the tape.  When indicators are most rosy on my time horizon I usually find it a good time to was myself What If?

MM

Weekend Review June 05, 2014

Market breadth continues to strengthen and the longer term Primary reading is close to flipping bullish which would be a positive and suggest to me this move has more legs to come.

MM Past Month

Another positive I noted at the end of the week is the inclusion of the Russell which until recently had been deteriorating the most.  Continued improvement in this ratio bodes well for over all market health.

RUT_SPX

However, on a shorter term time frame the market is slightly extended here and a rest would not be out of the question as the % of NYSE stocks above the 20 period average is 78.

%Stocks > 20

Another sign of improved market health on my time frame is the number of stocks setting up as well. One of the problems however has been a lack of follow through from break outs or rather muted ensuing moves.  Hopefully this will improve, but if not tactical adjustments to holding period or expected move will have to be adjusted.  Some set-ups ready to trigger or in need of a few more days rest:

AFOP

FORM

HNT

HZNP

JWN

PTRY

QIWI

In addition to set ups I'm interested in, many of the high flyers that were taken to the woodshed appear to be bottoming out.  Many of these stocks have been clipped 50% and could be clipped 50% more, but now that the exuberance in the IPO market over the past year has waned and many of these stocks become heavily shorted or will fall into a stage of neglect, they are setting up well for a catalyst such as earnings.

DATA

TWTR

VEEV

VJET

Weekend Review May 23, 2014

After a swift decline, high flyers are showing signs of stabilization.   Whether this is just a reflexive bounce remains to be seen, but for the time being there is a bid and a number of them have seen double digit returns this past week.  I've also noted that traders I follow on social media whose style and philosophy is similar to mine have begun to take some stabs here.  This will be a good week to focus on what stocks are actually doing and not discussions about what they should be.

High Flyers April

High Flyers May

High Flyers Performance Weekly

Weekend Review April 05, 2014

There is plenty of evidence and documentation indicating the significance of paying attention to the price action of glamour stocks and stocks that allow the fat cats through the doggie door.  During this past week I came across a couple of concepts about assessing market health through high P/E stocks and decided to incorporate this with my analysis of stocks that allow size to move in and out.  I believe that coupling these approaches of market analysis can lead to better understanding of what is happening now via two categories of stocks informing of the general risk appetite, as well as the general sentiment of those who move the needle.  

Investors Business Daily focuses upon growth and their research indicates that growth stocks will typically correct 2x-3x that of the general market averages.  Additionally they have noted that some of the more notable stocks of the past will have a high P/E ratio in part due to the premium being paid based upon the perception of future earnings.  They document that, “These findings strongly suggest that if you weren’t willing to buy growth stocks at 25 to 50 times earnings, or even much more, you automatically eliminated most of the best investments available… In a roaring bull market, don’t overlook a stock just because its P/E seems too high.” HTMMIS 5th pg. 200-201.  When the future prospects of growth stocks become discounted, these beauty queens can rapidly turn into ugly ducklings, drawing down one’s capital like quick sand.  As a result, a significant draw down may result in the death of a trading account, or a prolonged struggle just to get one’s feet back on the ground and break even.

I tend to take a logical approach to my market studies in theory, and unfortunately an (at times) irrational one in practice.  Taking this information from IBD and developing a process of analysis from it the key points here are that the best winners of the past will be ranked above 25 to 50 P/E, and during a bull market there mere perception of future potential trumps current rational assessment of fair price and value.  In a weakening market, watching for signs that these runway models are tripping off the catwalk en masse can be valuable information and there are two publicly available tools that can assist us in this.  Using FinViz I created a simple scan: P/E High(>50), Price Over $10, and Average Volume Over 100K, then ordered by Performance Month for the following RESULTS

High P/E Screen

Recently I found a new chart software TradingView which allows one to create a basket of stocks as an index.  Using this scan I charted the first 10 from this list:

High P/E

The second FinViz scan I created was for Big Cap stocks, the type that allow size in and out. RESULTS

Big Cap Screen

Using the top ten from this list produces the following chart

Big Cap

Now that there is a simple process for breaking down high P/E and large cap stocks and creating a basket index of their performance over a Monthly/Quarterly time frame, the next step is to decide upon which questions are pertinent in order to make the data meaningful.  As a swing trader questions that I’m most likely to find of interest are: How are the high flying, darling, IBD type, growth stocks performing? Are the general market indexes showing strength while these stocks are correcting several multiples? Are stocks with high P/E showing positive monthly and quarterly performance or waning on one of these time frames? What types of stocks show up on a monthly/quarterly time frame that allow size in and out?  Are these stocks up on a shorter time frame more aggressive or defensive oriented?  What about the inverse, are those down more aggressive?  There is plenty of wiggle room to frame the market within our personal time frame and trading mentality, but first one must determine if this information is useful to begin with and applicable, otherwise it's just more disinformation in an already cluttered world of trading noise.