Thursday, December 8, 2011

Sentiment During Bear Markets

I was directed to this excellent piece, The Ten Key Differences Between Bull and Bear Rallies on TraderLog and thought point 6: Market sentiment responds differently in bull and bear markets --is especially pertinent.  The key point made is this, "Bear markets on the other hand, slide down the slope of hope and are generally accompanied by extreme highs in sentiment followed by extreme lows (highs in bearish sentiment) which is another reason why volatility is higher during bear markets."  This can easily be put in context with a quick perusal of the AAII sentiment survey results:

AAII Sentiment

There is also a striking difference of opinion as contrasted with the vacillation of the Investors Intelligence survey during this time which in comparison looks quite bullish overall.
Investor Intelligence

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