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| N/A |
So bad my data host crashed.
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| No Data |
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Sunday, December 16, 2018
Small Caps Encroaching on Bear Territory
This week the S&P, IWM, and NYSE established new pivot lows. IWM has now corrected ~18% closing in on the 20% bearish threshold.
NASDAQ Composite low from 4 weeks ago has held thus far but has broken below 15% again. Time heals all markets, and with earnings season 4 weeks away the market may continue to drag until stock specific catalyst renew participation.
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| SPY Weekly |
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| IWM |
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| NYSE |
NASDAQ Composite low from 4 weeks ago has held thus far but has broken below 15% again. Time heals all markets, and with earnings season 4 weeks away the market may continue to drag until stock specific catalyst renew participation.
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| COMPQ |
Friday, December 14, 2018
20 Years of T2107 and T2108
Today I decide to take notes of the monthly data for the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 40 and 200 period moving averages.
Using below 20 as the threshold, between 1998 and 2008 what stands out on a monthly perspective is the threshold for the percentage of stocks above their 40 period average was clipped three times. Each of these occurred during a significant market move to the downside. 1998 occurred during the pivot low for that correction. A bounce followed 2001 and established a pivot low but did not establish the market low for the entire correction. 2007 happened close to the all time high and was a prelude of things to come down the line.
Between 2008 to present there have been four dips below the 20 threshold. The 2009 dip sealed the market low. The 2010 flash crash period established another market low. The correction of 2015-2016 had a significant lag time before the market bottomed and resumed an uptrend. Recently there has been a dip below and it remains to be seen how this will play out. However, another dip below is looking like a strong possibility.
Since 1998, on a monthly perspective the percentage of stocks above their 200 period moving average has dipped below the 20 threshold six times. Three times this occurred during the bottom, and three times this occurred during the bottom process as price continued to drag and the markets continued lower.
Using these past occurrences as model to asses future probability, I expect there will be more downside in price. I'm also expecting this to last longer than historical average in duration. Moving forward, I'll be placing slightly less influence on how stocks above their 40 snap back as they've been shown to move between extended to the downside to the upside earlier than the market bottom. What I'll be more mindful of over the next few weeks is how deeply the number of stocks below their 200 moving period extend below the 20 threshold and how robust any snap back rallies are. The snap backs with velocity from below 20 have more closely aligned to turning points.
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| T2108 1998-2008 |
Using below 20 as the threshold, between 1998 and 2008 what stands out on a monthly perspective is the threshold for the percentage of stocks above their 40 period average was clipped three times. Each of these occurred during a significant market move to the downside. 1998 occurred during the pivot low for that correction. A bounce followed 2001 and established a pivot low but did not establish the market low for the entire correction. 2007 happened close to the all time high and was a prelude of things to come down the line.
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| T2108 2008-Present |
Between 2008 to present there have been four dips below the 20 threshold. The 2009 dip sealed the market low. The 2010 flash crash period established another market low. The correction of 2015-2016 had a significant lag time before the market bottomed and resumed an uptrend. Recently there has been a dip below and it remains to be seen how this will play out. However, another dip below is looking like a strong possibility.
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| T2107 1998-Present |
Since 1998, on a monthly perspective the percentage of stocks above their 200 period moving average has dipped below the 20 threshold six times. Three times this occurred during the bottom, and three times this occurred during the bottom process as price continued to drag and the markets continued lower.
Using these past occurrences as model to asses future probability, I expect there will be more downside in price. I'm also expecting this to last longer than historical average in duration. Moving forward, I'll be placing slightly less influence on how stocks above their 40 snap back as they've been shown to move between extended to the downside to the upside earlier than the market bottom. What I'll be more mindful of over the next few weeks is how deeply the number of stocks below their 200 moving period extend below the 20 threshold and how robust any snap back rallies are. The snap backs with velocity from below 20 have more closely aligned to turning points.
Thursday, December 13, 2018
Further Deterioration
Market breadth continues to deteriorate. If the recent past is any indication, a potential bounce may be on the horizon.
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| Market Breadth |
Sunday, December 9, 2018
Wide and Loose Range
General market indices have been trading in a wide and loose range for the past 6 weeks. The S&P is currently on week 5 without establishing a new closing low and has had a weekly close in the 10% pullback zone multiple times without breaking lower.
IWM has been hovering in the range of a 15% pullback and undercut it's previous low pivot point. 20% correction in small caps may be on the horizon.
The COMPQ was the first to undercut a key pivot low 2 weeks back and continues to hover in the range of 15%. This is a key pivot to observe as an undercut puts the index in 20% correction territory.
NYSE continues to hover between 10-15% but is close to undercutting a pivot low from 6 weeks back.
One thing I've been keeping in mind is the oft repeated quip, "When the cops raid the brothel, everyone gets arrested, even the piano player." Additionally there is the belief passed through the O'Neil books and practitioners that when the markets correct, leading stocks for the next up leg decouple. There are a number of stocks that have bucked the general market direction and continue to hold well through the volatility suggesting to me that until these break down I'll continue to be optimistic of upside continuation when things settle.
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| SPY |
IWM has been hovering in the range of a 15% pullback and undercut it's previous low pivot point. 20% correction in small caps may be on the horizon.
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| IWM |
The COMPQ was the first to undercut a key pivot low 2 weeks back and continues to hover in the range of 15%. This is a key pivot to observe as an undercut puts the index in 20% correction territory.
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| COMPQ |
NYSE continues to hover between 10-15% but is close to undercutting a pivot low from 6 weeks back.
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| NYSE |
One thing I've been keeping in mind is the oft repeated quip, "When the cops raid the brothel, everyone gets arrested, even the piano player." Additionally there is the belief passed through the O'Neil books and practitioners that when the markets correct, leading stocks for the next up leg decouple. There are a number of stocks that have bucked the general market direction and continue to hold well through the volatility suggesting to me that until these break down I'll continue to be optimistic of upside continuation when things settle.
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| TTD |
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| SEND |
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Top 40 Hits
Top 40 Stocks greater than $3 using anchored momentum from October 03, 2018
Top 40 IPOS grater than $3 using anchored momentum from October 03, 2018
Top 100 Stocks greater than $3 using anchored momentum From October 03, 2018
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| Top 40 Stocks |
Top 40 IPOS grater than $3 using anchored momentum from October 03, 2018
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| Top 40 IPO |
Top 100 Stocks greater than $3 using anchored momentum From October 03, 2018
GRTS ASNS AEZS PTI INTX NETE FLNT IMMY TSRO ESIO CYH PACB ALLK ANY AMSC TYME NTEC ARII HMHC SAVE ECYT CVON RHT ITG IDT BNFT EHTH ESL LRN GBT ICAD GNE CROX LTRPA ACIU SEND MITK TAHO VNDA VCYT JE LFVN CDXS ABCD INOV VIRT TVTY BKS HCCI CREE CALX VIVO BDSI SHEN LOCO VTR TRIP SCG USM KODK CRNT TSLA XBIT IMPV ARCO MPW BCRX ENSG MLNX LANC MKTX CBRL FNSR ADC WELL MNRO VCTR SSRM SCWX CZZ NSA ARRS SBUX UA CRAY RUBI TR BIOS RH TREE FEYE HCP MDB ENPH DATA CTB TWLO DENN DIN VCEL
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