Thursday, January 31, 2019

January 2019 Monthly


While January has offered plenty of opportunities to take advantage of, the market indices suggest the overall backdrop for stocks is not settled.  Even with a significant snapback from the December lows, on a monthly time frame the market indices are within a zone that the recent past has shown to be prone to failures.  


COMPQ Monthly

Monday, January 21, 2019

Weekend Review: January 18, 2019


It only took the major indices three weeks to accomplish what typically takes a year.  From deeply extended breadth conditions to the downside that culminated in a correction ranging between 20-25%, the indices snapped back ~15%.  


COMPQ 01/19


When the markets are down it’s beneficial to look for the positives.  When they are up it’s beneficial to asses what the negatives might be.  Historically it is not uncommon for indices to snap back following a significant leg down before sellers dominate again.  Whether this scenario plays out remains to be seen, but what is evident is that on a shorter and medium time horizon, stocks above their 20 period moving average are overextended to the upside, and the percentage of stocks above their 40 period is at a cautionary level.



%NYSE > 20MA

%NYSE > 40MA


Moves like this are unlikely to be sustainable, and in the least some form of pullback or sideways consolidation should be anticipated.  How much selling hits the tape and the manner in which stocks behave moving forward during the next two will clarify matters.   

Monday, January 7, 2019

First Five Days of Trading and the January Effect

The January effect is a hypothesis, and like all calendar-related effects, suggests that the markets as a whole are inefficient, as efficient markets would naturally make this effect non-existent. The January effect seems to affect small caps more than mid or large caps because they are less liquid.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the data suggests that these asset classes have outperformed the overall market in January, especially toward the middle of the month.
-- Investopedia

The January effect offers an opportunity to curate watchlist for the year based upon stocks that have a tendency to outperform.  In order to take advantage of this I've opted to screen and take the top 250 stocks from each list during the first, second, and final trading week of the month.  In addition to candidates likely to outperform, clusters will emerge from these lists offering clues to potential themes to exploit over the trading year.

One of the first screens I is the accumulation of price * volume over a 5 day period on the IWM specifically, and my complete universe overall.

IWM:

ROKU,LOXO,WTW,FIVE,RH,ETSY,TTD,IDTI,DECK,CIEN,MEDP,ESL,SWN,MB,CBRL,BBBY,AEO,CLF,TNDM,PLNT,TDOC,WWE,GME,OLLI,NTRI,OAS,ZS,ENTG,HUBS,SAVE,P,PTLA,NXST,BOX,LGND,LITE,AYX,PLCE,INGN,COUP,ICPT,PENN,HQY,CVNA,YELP,ARRY,CLVS,IRBT,ESPR,ANF,SAFM,EAT,DK,TVPT,GMED,PLAY,TREE,STMP,CREE,CRC,PCRX,LPX,MTDR,CPE,KBR,NYT,IMMU,PEB,NEWR,FNSR,CUZ,CAR,HAE,TREX,TECD,SAM,CLDR,AMED,IMPV,VAC,FOLD,MNK,DSW,JACK,CAKE,SIG,ISBC,WMGI,MYGN,NUVA,HTZ,LIVN,CADE,INSM,CRUS,CROX,AAXN,BXMT,BEL,MTZ,FGEN,THC,SBRA,TXRH,GBT,GKOS,HRTX,ERI,WING,SFLY,PDCE,MDSO,ATRA,DDS,DNR,ELLI,MTG,FIVN,ENDP,ATI,I,BYD,GDOT,RARE,MDGL,AVA,SBGI,SNX,HELE,CRZO,MUSA,SEAS,MYOK,ESIO,ABM,LAD,ACAD,LANC,BIG,SLCA,MED,RAMP,PDCO,DORM,SBH,EVBG,CHDN,KBH,DIN,APTI,SYNH,MDR,GPOR,TMHC,BJ,SGMS,RLJ,DO,PTCT,CACI,BEAT,AKS,CRCM,SHAK,NVRO,SKT,CHGG,RETA,BECN,FFIN,MMS,AXGN,MRTX,VKTX,SEND,VSH,BCO,NTGR,TGNA,CMC,NSP,ARWR,CVLT,IDA,MDCO,LGIH,IBTX,MBFI,FR,NJR,STAG,ILPT,IIVI,BDC,FIT,MRT,EBS,BLMN,COLD,ASGN,KMT,NVAX,AMN,SHO,AAN,POR,BTU,RCII,HOME,BID,ARLO,DAN,GHDX,FIZZ,BJRI,WWW,ALRM,IDCC,ATGE,CDNA,IRTC,BPMC,IPHI,JCOM,FII,DY,EGP,OPK,ARNA,VG,ARI,MMSI,IBKC,CHS,HWC,TVTY,OSTK,HZNP,EDIT,WWD,ADC,MNRO,EYE,SRCI,UNFI,SAIC,SF,PDM,PBYI, AMBA

Universe:

SPY,AMZN,QQQ,AAPL,NFLX,IWM,MSFT,FB,EEM,EFA,TSLA,HYG,CELG,BABA,GOOGL,NVDA,TLT,AMD,GOOG,VXX,IVV,BAC,BMY,JPM,XLF,GLD,DIA,V,LQD,BA,TQQQ,FXI,XLE,XLV,EWZ,T,INTC,BRKB,C,XLK,VOO,AVGO,XLI,GE,SQ,GDX,XLU,CSCO,IEF,XOM,WFC,MU,UNH,IYR,XLP,PFE,MRK,AGG,IEMG,JNJ,DIS,VNQ,IEFA,CRM,VZ,VEA,CMCSA,MA,PG,SQQQ,PYPL,ORCL,JNK,VWO,VTI,HD,ADBE,WMT,CVX,SBUX,TVIX,IWD,SLB,MDT,ROKU,GS,XLY,QCOM,XOP,EWJ,GILD,SMH,AMGN,TXN,MDY,ABBV,XBI,BKNG,DWDP,CAT,BIL,FRC,KO,TMO,PEP,SHV,UVXY,ABT,UTX,LLY,TWTR,EMB,BIDU,CI,LOXO,UNP,NKE,MCD,MO,AABA,IBM,IWF,MS,DAL,CVS,AMAT,COST,IJH,SH,D,MMM,KRE,TWLO,PM,XLB,BIIB,JD,FDX,SHY,STZ,IJR,ANTM,CHTR,GDXJ,ACWI,NEE,LOW,AGN,RHT,WBA,EA,NOW,ATVI,BND,HON,BSV,PBR,AXP,ISRG,F,COP,MPC,BKLN,IVE,VTV,WDAY,IWB,CMG,VALE,FOXA,CSX,SPXL,DLTR,USMV,EOG,CME,USO,TGT,TSM,DE,SSO,USB,EBAY,AMT,OXY,GM,SHPG,VGK,SDS,KHC,LMT,XRT,ALGN,WYNN,REGN,HUM,HAL,BDX,ACN,PXD,AZO,NXPI,VLO,SCHW,AMLP,ILMN,SHW,ORLY,IVW,IBB,INTU,VMW,MDLZ,CL,TJX,BLK,HES,LULU,ADP,UPS,AAL,IAU,UGAZ,MCHI,UAL,DELL,BP,PCG,BAX,SPXS,TNA,XLRE,DGAZ,STI,SPXU,RTN,SO,DG,LIN,EL,PSX,KSS,NSC,TMUS,PNC,SYK,NOC,EMR,WMB,KMB

5 Day % Change IWM:
  LOXO,PIR,INSM,BW,AAC,CTIC,IO,VRCA,LCI,ROKU,CNST,EQ,RETA,MGEN,CRR,BAS,TTPH,AKAO,BRS,EPZM,EPE,SNDX,NEOS,FTK,EOLS,TWI,AGEN,FATE,NVTA,AXDX,NH,IMDZ,ARQL,SPRO,SURF,LTS,GTXI,LGIH,NE,TXMD,CRBP,AGE,CLVS,PLUG,HPR,ACHN,CBIO,PYX,ENDP,ESTE,JCP,BPMC,KALA,NSTG,GTT,STRO,RMTI,SNNA,ADMA,CPE,CHRS,AREX,CBAY,ARDX,MLNT,MARK,IDRA,AUBN,WTI,FET,AVEO,RDC,INO,TTI,FPI,JNCE,TRXC,ASNA,PFNX,GME,CPRX,ARRY,OSG,KOPN,YRCW,PFIE,GEN,PES,CWH,OCN,KEG,VTL,DMRC,PTLA,HLX,CENX,CRC,SRCI,AYX,DCPH,LLEX,SGRY,MDR,HCHC,MPAA,PENN,IMGN,ROSE,OII,DRQ,NVAX,MTDR,TLGT,ALNA,OVID,EVC,BZH,XOMA,YMAB,BRY,GERN,HOME,MRNS,SSTI,RARX,TWST,SFS,FTR,DNR,SEND,ZGNX,TGTX,NCSM,RCM,GMS,LQDT,IIIV,OIS,ARVN,AXAS,RAD,CWBR,BBGI,CARA,REI,OPK,ONCE,OPTN,PBYI,SUM,UNT,TK,VSTM,DF,WLH,MCRB,NOG,AQST,AROC,AMWD,CDMO,RTW,ETM,DWSN,NYMX,ASNS,CRVS,MNLO,CCS,SEMG,AMPE,GNK,VCYT,ZEUS,ARWR,CHUY,IRWD,FOSL,BOLD,ICPT,AKRX,IOTS,INSP,SWN,INAP,VHC,TCI,SN,SPN,QHC,HRI,GRTS,TPHS,SPPI,RECN,OSTK,PGNX,CNCE,OLLI,PDCE,KOP,MNK,DO,MXWL,VHI,MRT,FI,CNSL,NWHM,NNBR,TGH,HK,FIVE,IMH,ESCA,RPD,SVMK,BOOT,CLF,MBIO,CTT,VRAY,SYRS,SGMO,ALDX,NR,CBL,MHO,IBP,RYAM,TIVO,CVIA,REPH,ICD,SLDB,AMR,UEIC,KDMN,PKE,BLCM,BTX,MRTX,RRGB,HEES,SGYP,ASC,GBL,CLNE,MRC,GPOR 
 
Universe:
  AXSM,LXFT,LOXO,PIR,ADXS,INSM,BW,MYND,SAGE,IPIC,QEP,TMDI,HAIR,EDGE,SCYX,AAC,MICT,CTIC,HSGX,IO,GNCA,ASV,VRCA,LCI,DDMX,ROKU,CNST,CLMT,CLPS,OXBR,EQ,CNET,RETA,CAPR,SNSS,CGIX,JAGX,BLPH,SPHS,MGEN,LABU,SXE,NDRA,CRR,BAS,SITO,TTPH,PRT,YTEN,AKAO,CHKE,LPTX,EPZM,BRS,SMMT,LEU,LGCY,FLGT,EPE,GUSH,DRIOW,DXR,SNDX,BPMX,NEOS,SUNW,TLC,LENS,TRCH,HYRE,WPRT,NMM,NNA,HHS,IPWR,RWLK,NVUS,FTK,MTNB,IZEA,EOLS,CNAT,CELGZ,MXC,CVEO,AZRX,TWI,AGEN,FATE,FGP,NAVB,NVTA,HZN,AXDX,NH,IMDZ,CDTX,BTAI,SOLO,CHAP,PMTS,GALT,CPAH,CRK,ARQL,SCKT,DCAR,SPRO,SURF,AUMN,DISCB,CRIS,LTS,SHIP,CRMD,GTXI,AVXL,LGIH,NE,PLL,NEPT,TXMD,NBR,ARC,SEED,CLIR,CRBP,INS,EFOI,AGE,HTBX,CLVS,TCON,ACET,PLUG,HPR,ACHN,EXAS,CBIO,CELG,PYX,ENDP,STON,ESTE,DMPI,JCP,CIFS,HOS,INSG,KOOL,BPMC,PSTI,PETZ,VISI,SQNS,VRML,IGLD,EVER,ESV,KALA,GEVO,CRSP,ESEA,NSTG,NVFY,BE,PVL,GTT,URGN,SORL,BLDP,WKHS,APRI,APPS,DVCR,STRO,GSM,RMTI,CKPT,TOPS,DPW,SNNA,ADMA,OPI,CPE,WFT,CHRS,CFMS,AREX,TSQ,PRVB,AMID,ALT,BVXV,DLNG,ECT,CBAY,ARDX,LONE,MLNT,MARK,IDRA,AUBN,WTI,FET,NAUH,IFMK,PLYM,HUYA,CHEK,VLRX,AVEO,SNDE,DXYN,RDC,INO,PULM,TTI,FPI,BKYI,AVP,JNCE,CSBR,CLRB,VBLT,BCOM,ISR,DNJR,CNFR,CCLP,MVIS,TRXC,ASNA,PFNX,DRYS,VVUS,BPT,MN,GME,TIS,CPRX,AMCN,ARRY,MBRX,CTRV,XENE,CUR,OSG,WLL,KOPN  

Sunday, January 6, 2019

Weekend Review January 04, 2019

Swing trading often involves looking for windows of opportunity before the door slams shut.  The market may be opening a door as the major indices have had a two week rebound of ~8% from their December low.  In the near term there are two scenarios that I find plausible, one being a retest of December lows and the other being a period of consolidation.

QQQ Scenarios

Scenario A will become clearer should selling begin again.  Scenario B may be a little more nuanced with the indices having wild swings up and down while the underlying buying to selling will be asymmetrical in nature.  What I mean by this is that a stock like AAPL may lead the indices to the downside but the upside is the result of a larger basket.


VIX

Of note this week: Volatility as gauged by the VIX is falling.

Highs to Lows

Highs to Lows across a 1M and 3M time frame is positive.

Trading Universe
If the market does continue to improve and commence a new momentum phase, the universe I trade should expand.  As of now this is still anemic.  This week focus will be on a couple of core concepts: improvement in these numbers,  increase in setups, and stocks over my holding period showing price appreciation.

Friday, January 4, 2019

Screening High PE for Watchlist

According to the studies of William O'Neil:


based on 50 years' data research to include several bear/bull cycles, which proved that on average the top-performing stocks started their upturn on a P/E of 20X or above...


Mark Minervini echos this when discussing high P/E ratios:

The top 100 best-performing small- and mid-cap stocks of 1996 and 1997 had an average P/E of 40. Their P/Es grew further to an average of 87 and a median of 65. Relatively speaking, their initially “expensive” P/Es turned out to be extremely cheap.

With this in mind, screening for high P/E offers traders fertile hunting grounds for stocks with potential for outsized moves.  Using FinViz, a first pass offers a universe of 1119 stocks.

FinViz High P/E

Clearly this is too many.   Further screening by 20/20 Earnings: 

High P/E 20/20 Earnings

A much more manageable 151 stocks.  This can be sliced and diced, but the main starting point is to use a high P/E then filter from there to create a trackable universe to focus on.

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

December Monthly

The general market indices have completed three months of correcting through price with a decent bounce from the December lows.   With this much damage done to price it is now more likely a question of time.  While the December lows may yet again be tested, the extreme extension of breadth to the down side across a number of indicators suggest that a bottom in price has been established.  The length and duration of price oscillation before buyers step in resuming an uptrend remains to be determined but the first five trading days of the year may offer clues.

IWM Monthly
COMPQ Monthly

NYSE Monthly

SPY Monthly