Non-Horseshit Stock Advice

Back in my younger days when a Tonka truck could stop a Mack truck and a Japanese die-cast robot shot a projectile that could put your eye out, things weren't so much child safe as child approved. After all, what were parents going to do with their brats when they're at the casino or the track but find the arcade or playground to dump their children off at. It was on one of these trips that I first laid money down on a pony. I was about 6 or 7 at the time and the only experiences I had with a pony prior to this was eating paste and dog food, or having a photo taken on one by some guy going up and down the street taking pictures of kids on his miniature pony and returning sepia prints for a few bucks.

Suffice to say my horse won and while I wouldn't say I was hooked, I have made trips to the track over the years. Eventually I even developed a ritual. I'd pick up the next day's Racing Forum and head off to a bar to peruse the races over a couple of beers and take notes and mark down races of interest. I'd pick out which horses had speed and which horses tended to lay off and close in the last few furlongs then envision how this might play out.  On the train ride down to Bay Meadows I'd carry my dog eared copy of Bukowski The Most Beautiful Woman in Town and read the short story "Non-Horseshit Horse Advice" for its gems and wisdom. .

Before the race started I'd head down to the paddock where over time and through acquaintances I'd begun to develop a keen eye for the equine ass and could pick out which horse had legs and which horse was taped up and looking a little gimpy, and which horse was agitated or had a little too much sheen. Occasionally I might come across a friend of my dads who had some intelligence to pass my way. There's always tips at the track.

Overtime I begin to pick up on the little clues about track internals and note which jockey/trainer combination is best, which jockey tends to get the best rides and is the consensus track favorite. At Bay Meadows it was Russell Baze and good luck trying to get some odds on this mounts. I also picked up on some of the tactical themes like how the horse you like is in a higher stakes race down the line and might just be using this as a practice run and the jockey is going to lay off the pace so perhaps it's better to look at another. Sometimes it might be a horse brought down from another state and this is a step up in competition or in some cases a step down so should be viewed in this context. Perhaps the horse was a feisty colt last race and is now a gelding.

With the amount of time I've spent at the track however, I've never heard anything along the lines of: I like Winsome Lonesome in the 5^th. The filly is coming off a solid trend and has just had a 0 line MACD cross and isn't overbought on the RSI. One would think that if ever there was a place made for technical analysis it would be at the sports book. Most TA is based off of price and volume so surly substituting total amount of purses and total amount bet on this horse's races could substitute. Alas, I've never heard of any such talk.

Come to think of it, I've never heard any TA talk outside of the market. I've never walked into a sports bar during an NBA finals and heard a conversation go:

“Who do you like in this game?”

--Well Bob, I like Durant's cross over.

“Yeah, he's been working on his dribbling technique, hasn't he.”

--No Bob, I mean his ADX cross is showing some positive momentum and there's the OBV confluence in his points per game, but I'm having a little issue with his PT/F ratio.

“PT/F ratio?”

--Points per foul, Bob. It's overvalued right now so I'm expecting a drop in performance this game because he's likely to get into foul trouble early and benched for long periods.

So here's my non-horseshit stock advice. Be careful when starting out the technical analysis route because if it is as meaningful as claimed it would be applied in every day life more often than it is --if it is. More importantly, be doubly careful when using formulas used in every day life and applying them to markets. I recommend simply this, first learn how markets work, learn their mechanics, their internals and their structure. There is no doubt there are people who use TA successfully as part of their set ups and make a ton of money, but anyone going this route must fully understand what it is before applying:

ADX Formula