The Slap Heard 'Round the World

Nobody knows better than me. This statement may come across as hubris, and when it comes to life I fully admit this is not completely accurate; however, when it comes to trading and putting up my own capital this egocentric statement is closer to truth than fiction. The problem is that I don't always know any better and sometimes when I do know better I don't necessarily act any better. Where this weakness has become glaringly obvious is how I interpret and react to news events.

Recently I started thinking about a number of different news stories and the effect they had upon my decision making process and subsequent actions. More often then not I found myself on the zig instead of zag treadmill. What I've concluded is that I've given too much credit to folks who get paid for their ideas or the number of words per article instead of what truly matters –market reaction. I've even been seduced by the opinions of those who have more experience than myself and those that have shown a track record of taking money out of the market, but what I've ultimately decided is that as someone who trades their own capital, I'm the only one who knows better.

A story I have gone back to and reviewed has been Greece. The reason I have done so is that I was reminded of Greece because I've no longer been hearing about Greece. For a period of time this was the only story discussed and it was becoming a very negative one. Where I last left off before turning away from the subject in disgust was when the banter began to become sophomoric political theory verging on xenophobia. When the story started to become about black shirted jackbooted thugs romper stomping the streets of Athens I had reached my limit. Would Greece really go down that road?

Then there was this:

Clearly the answer to me was becoming yes, Greece was going down that road. But then an odd thing happened. That slap heard round the world coincided with the Athens market bottoming and moving up 100% trough to peak. Funny thing is, I don't recall seeing this in the news at all. With the exception of the fear published about a run on Cypress banks, it was as if this story just disappeared without a trace while the index quietly doubled.

$ATG

As a market participant it's crucial to keep an open mind and be vigilant and keep on alert and focused for opportunities as they arise. Sometimes these happen to be counter-intuitive and some times these happen to come when there is literally blood on the streets. Sometimes these happen when everyone forgets what is was they were worried about to begin with.  Now that Greece is back on my radar the follow up for me is, is there opportunity and a potential theme playing out that should be paid attention to going forward?