The First Bounce

Using the data from AlphaArchitect we know that there is a 47% probability of a 5% pullback continuing to 10%.  Empirically it is easy to note that the first bounce is unlikely to establish the lowest low of a pullback. Given that the first low of the recent move is approximately 7% and that the first bounce is unlikely to establish the lowest low of the move, a 10% pullback is a more probable event at this point than the indices establishing a bottom.

Top Quotes via AlphaArchitect