Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Where the Sun Don't Shine

It's late night at the diner and the pickings are slim and the dregs at the bottom of the pot are burnt. Action like today gives pause as it exhibits a “something to do just because” mentality with a select few stocks as the soup du jour. Bottom fishing yet again took the lead today as my scans show 213 stocks up 4% today on greater volume but with just 19 within 15% of their 52-Week high and half priced under $5.

Today's theme was solar, a group quite beaten down and hovering near 52-Week lows with no significant catalyst having moves of 30%+ nearly across the board. It probably didn't hurt that solar as a whole was a powder keg to begin with and ready for igniting given the float that was short coming into today: FSLR 35%, TSL 24%, JKS 24%, CISQ 14%, SOL 8%, and JASO 7%.

Today's market action can be summed up thus: “Well, what did you do that for?” --”Because I can.” When this type of herding into a select few stocks begins to occur and the fluff rises to the top, it's suggestive of a market that's reached a boiling point and may roil over. In general these will not be the type of stocks that will garner institution support and will instead have their short term momentum phase revert. This action suggest the market may be running on fumes here and a pause is on the horizon. A small pull back here should be welcomed as an opportunity for stocks to set up.

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