Monday, February 11, 2019

Clearly Uncertain

I view the market in a binary manner.  Either it is tradable or it isn't.  If the market isn't tradable no further analysis is required.  If it is tradable, how tradable must be assessed.  Within this spectrum there are many shades of gray with the occasional black and white.  With a short term holding period the behavior of the general market structure has a significant impact upon my results.  Additionally, having a holding period for one set up with a 3-5 day time horizon and another with a 5-10 day time horizon means I juggle my perspective frequently. I place heavy reliance upon how my existing and recent trades are functioning.

When my analysis suggest the backdrop of the market is extended but stocks continue to set up and a handful of quality setups continue to break out, my focus tends towards heightened risk awareness and decreased exposure.  When faced with conditions that I'm on the fence about, such as when breadth is extended or waning, indices are trudging sideways, results are muted, my averages are not being met, etc...  I will quarter my account and cap positions at 4 max exposing ~1% of account to risk during such periods. 

QTT


QTT is a breakout today that meets my standards.  Under differing conditions this is the type of trade I would look to maximize my potential upside through my sizing algorithm while keeping risk within norms, but currently I'm more focused on trading clearly through risk management, maintaining my R/R norms and W/L ratio, than meeting my avg. gain/loss per trade in dollar amount.  Decreasing size never hurts when clearly uncertain.

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