Thursday, February 28, 2019

Extreme Momentum on the Indices

It is uncommon for the major market indices to show up in my momentum scans.  It's rarer still when they all do.  The tendency thereafter has been a sharp pullback. 

IWM Momentum Phase
NYSE Momentum Phase
QQQ Momentum Phase
SPY Momentum Phase


After spending a lengthy period of time elevated at extended levels, the % of stocks above their 20 period moving average dipped below 70.

% Stocks > 20 Period MA
 
On a higher time frame and also after an extended period of time at elevated levels, the % of stocks above their 40 period moving average has also declined, but not significantly enough to drop under the 70 zone.

T2108
These are the periods when a prudent speculator may want to consider transitioning from trader to risk manager.  The lock out rally has been forgiving, maximum adversity may not be so.

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