Saturday, December 8, 2012

Year High Volume and Rotation and Watch List


Since late October I've been keeping a list of new highs, all time highs, and year high volume. In the beginning I had a concept as to why I was doing this but I didn't have a clear direction. Through this process a number of ideas were germinating but I was clearly lacking a cohesive plan on how I would begin to use this information. Each time I take on a project like this I become concerned with redundancy in my process and the possibility that what I'm doing is superfluous and unnecessary and takes time away from applying myself to more significant and pressing issues. Luckily this has had a positive effect and the time I've spent on this has proven to be worth while.

In keeping tabs on year high volume I've noted that this does not occur often on a daily basis so that it is easy enough to keep a watch list that isn't overwhelming and can be managed easily. Additionally, it's been excellent at highlighting significant changes in a stocks character when price begins to follow volume after a clustering of such days. Another feature is the clustering of sectors and sub-industry groups for observing rotation in the market.

The following images contain the symbol and Worden Sub-Industry Group of stocks in November that I decided were worth adding to my list. Using this process I jotted down the Resort & Casinos theme with the three listed stocks, PENN, PNK, and ASCA all making year high volume on 11/16.





In having this information accessible it has become more meaningful when other stocks begin to follow . This past Friday another Resort & Casino had year high volume, MGM.

MGM

The same process can be applied and adjusted to IPOs for which I look at 3 Month and 6 Month volume highs and CZR, also in the Resort & Casino industry, had its highest volume since it's debut.

CZR

For myself, keeping tabs on this information is simple, easy, and more importantly, manageable. Volume of this magnitude is not created by retail traders, it's the foot prints of institution money. It's worth paying attention to when and where this happens for context as well. On neglected stocks hovering at lows for months or years, this can be the first signs of accumulation. After a prolonged down trend this can be the last flushing of old hands capitulating, especially if it's a gap down. At highs this can be a warning. For further research I'd recommend the price activity of CPSS and ZIP.

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